Drought detection

In Remote Sensing Centre we monitor the thermal conditions of the agricultural area in the growing season. Using the satellite data we've modelled the indicators of thermal conditions correlated closely to the cumulation of precipitation and air temperature in the period precede our estimation. The maps below present the areas where the thermal conditions for crops are average ( light green ), very good ( green ), and going dry ( orange ) or really drought ( red color ). Additionally, the blue color means the wet and cold condition of soil, what with the temperature lower than zero could cause the near-ground frost.

 

Near-ground frost   2 0 1 7

 

dekad 13 (1 - 10 of May) 2017 dekad 14 (11 - 20 of May) 2017
 

In the current season the first period of May was very cold. Ocasionally the negative temperatures took a stand. It would couse the near-ground frost and distroyed the plants in early stage of vegetation especially on the area where the soil conditions were wet.

Thus, we expect decrease of yields of agricultural crops. Our models indicates that the yields would be even lower than the voivodenships averages. The graphs are placed in the section Yield forecast.

In the drought detection system remote sensing data, supported with meteorological observations, are the main source of information. Analysis of crop growth conditions is done through the whole vegetation period and situation is compared with normal or previous year.

 

The processed information for Poland is derived from NOAA/AVHRR satellite images, collected at the Institute of Geodesy and Cartography, as well as from NOAA/NESDIS data, comprising TCI and VCI coefficients. This information is also compared with data received from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management and from the Head Statistical Office.

Droughts in climatic conditions of Poland cause heavy damages in vegetation, influencing decrease of crop yields. The drought is directly implied by disturbances in water balance. These disturbances are caused by atmospheric drought (deficit of rainfall), soil drought caused by excessive soil drying and hydrological drought which decreases level of groundwater. In the course of last fifty years severe droughts with high economic impact appeared in 1951, 1953, 1959, 1963, 1964, 1969, 1971, 1976, 1982, 1988, 1990 and in 1992 (most severe causing yield decrease of winter cereals by 15 % and spring cereals by 20 %). In 21st century droughts appeared in 2000, 2003 and 2006.

Research project concerning with this subject are: